Blog entry by Ken Interactive
Sometime near the end of year 2019, began the end of the world as we knew it. The syndrome surrounding COVID-19 has had rippling effects, extending far and wide. And its here to stay, in Mind & certainly in Spirit and maybe in Body too.
“It will be a changed life, and it will be a new normal with which we will have to live hereafter.” [1].
“Hereafter !”. Instils a sense of eternity, all our collective futures. Therefore this deserves careful thought. So let us imagine what it will be like a year from today and prioritize the top 5 trends that are most likely to have dramatic shifts in a Lifestyle that our world had become so used to.
And let us ponder - How do we arrange ourselves into a new normal, now that the proverbial order in the Apple cart has been wildly upset?
The pervasive affliction of the Corona
virus has set new and numerous trends, with respect to the workplace, across
almost all sectors of business. But, let us confine ourselves to discussing five
of them. The five new habits of highly
adaptable people, if you will. These may or may not be the top trends depending
on the perspective we take, but they are certainly top of mind concerns.
Trend #1: Fly low
The Airline industry is by far the worst hit as a consequence of lockdown on travel. With its already high fixed costs and low margins, they are floundering. With very little clarity on how the virus transmits, for how much longer there will be hesitation to travel is unpredictable. And given that the world has adjusted with no travel, it is most likely to, in the very least, decrease travel, for all purposes- personal and work related.
The direct impact is on Tourism, especially
in small economies such as Virgin islands, Maldives and Aruba, etc. where a
majority of income comes from tourism. According to the site https://foreignpolicy.com/, 92%
contribution to Virgin Islands GDP, came from Tourism, in 2018. If tourism becomes a non-starter, when at last
the COVID19 pandemic is past us, what
will become of these economies? Will they even survive till this passes ?
Trend #2: Remote everything
For 71 days, in every household in this set of Apartments in Juhu, Mumbai, no one has stepped out beyond the gate. Not even once. Mumbai was declared a hot spot sometime late March and has only become more fiery over the past months. No helpers to cook or clean or drive. Yet, we’ve managed to work, eat well & exercise, sort of celebrate special occasions and have had to revive our traditional tea time card games, to substitute surfing Netflix for some show with a semblance of entertainment. Never the less, no complaints from any of us. With every apartment housing at least 2 super senior citizens, none of us can take even the slightest risk.
We max out on the use of delivery systems. Whether it is groceries or banking services, medicines or cleaning supplies, celebrating birthday parties or presenting in an all day video conference, they are all doorstep/closed door deliveries. I registered for an online class this morning and watched a web concert last weekend. My world literally operates within four walls.
This is the way of the present world. Four walls.
Will this change with the passing of COVID19? Will we revert to honking, spitting and polluting Flamingo habitats? (watch this [5] if that statement doesn’t resonate with you).
CNBC in its Next Normal section says “Working from home is here to stay, even when the economy reopens.” [6]. Technology companies such as Google and Facebook have already declared that only a percentage of their workforce will be commuting to office like in the pre-COVID days. Because of the time and cost savings and the anticipated growth in bandwidth and network speeds, this trend is probably here to stay.
But what about retail ? Will eShopping replace traditional touch and feel type purchases?
Depends how much tolerance shoppers will have for social distancing while shopping in Malls. The line will be longer and would you really want to try on a blouse that someone else has previously tried on?
If not anything else, the experiences will be different from earlier times.
And then there’s Education. Leisure & Entertainment. And if no one is going anywhere, what about the automobile industry ? Mass transport?
The repercussions of Remote Everything is too numerous to list here.
But the truth is every facet of everyone’s lives will be affected in one way or the other and will most likely be quite different from what we are used to.
Trend # 3: Ubiquitous monopolies by Technology
New Technologies have been shaking up the business world long before the Corona interfered. In a previous blog we discussed upskilling and learning new skills is an imperative. Because we might have to live and function alongside a virus that may become intimately intertwined with our world, the first weapon of defense is Learning. But back to the technologies.
Chief Futurist of Possibility and Purpose, Steve Brown, predicts six new technologies that will “Rock our World”.
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He says, “Six technologies—Artificial Intelligence, Block chain, Sensors, Autonomous machines, Augmented Reality, and 5G & satellite constellation networks, will combine to create incredible new products and services, revolutionize business operations, elevate human work, and serve customers in new ways.” [8]. |
Let’s take a quick look at how each of these six technologies are likely to affect our lives during and post COVID19.
First Artificial Intelligence (AI). This technology which tops the Favorites list of a wide variety of organizations, includes AI platforms, chatbots for services, machine learning, deep learning, AI applications and more.
“Under conditions of COVID-19 spreading all over the world, AI may contribute to the forecasting of consumers’ wishes, which became hardly predictable, and to help businesses organize effective logistics. Chatbots may provide clients’ support 24/7, one of the ‘must-have’ during the lockdown. The popularity of machine learning may grow due to the necessity of the improvement of algorithm-moderators of posts and visual content in social networks (which sometimes block reliable sources of information about coronavirus and don’t detect fakes).” [9]
Block Chain is a natural associated product of the all-pervasive Internet. It offers a secure passage for data in Internet based transactions. A few current applications of Block Chain are - Supply chain management (because “it can connect all stakeholders in a supply chain and provide a single source of truth. It provides transparency and breaks down data silos while guaranteeing security.”), contact tracing (“Blockchain can be used to both gather and collate patient data more efficiently, monitor patients’ movements to guarantee social distance, and protect their identity at the same time.”) & Disaster relief & Insurance (“Blockchain is used in the loan and insurance industry to simplify and shorten the complicated application and approval process by removing third-party intermediaries and inherent delays in processing.”) [10]. This can help organizations reopen faster and more safely after the COVID wave.
The National Institute for Smart Government (NISG) provides a forward-thinking perspective to future applications of Block Chain. [11]
Next, wearable Sensors can be used to ensure safe distances for workers, communicate with other sensors and can with real-time intervention avoid potential problem situations. Contact sensors for security purposes will probably be replaced with face recognition or voice recognition or perhaps you may need to peer into a lens to identify yourself. With few flights set to resume services, heat sensors are expected to be used for contactless temperature measurements.
Now for Autonomous machines or Robots. These have the ability to perceive their environment, make a decision about what to do next and then activate a movement based on that decision. Some examples are the robot cleaners such as Roomba, self-driving cars, Auto check-out like Amazon Go Grocery. Robot arms and machines are already being used for sanitation, delivering food, picking vegetables etc. With the increased focus on hygiene and cleanliness due to the Corona virus, these machines are expected to be put to use faster than anticipated earlier.
Next, how will Augmented Reality (AR) influence a world during and post COVID 19?
Three primary attributes of AR are Visualization, Story telling and annotation. All of the three functions can be put to use to combat and sustain defense against COVID 19. The variety of applications that AR can employed for is depicted in the picture below.
Source : https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/augmented-reality-covid-19-positive-use/
Video games, live events, HealthCare & Engineering are expected to take up more than 50% of the AR applications. COVID-19 just might accelerate the use of these applications sooner rather than later.
If you are an already avid user of Zoom for all conference calls with your colleagues, the importance of 5G and Satellite Constellation Networks will be apparent. These are technologies that allow millions of employees now working from their homes, to find enough bandwidth to have a conversations with another human person, with eye contact and body language. Again, the mandatory requirement to work from home or anywhere, has fast-forwarded the need for availability of high-speed Broadband. This space is literally getting crowded with companies preferring Satellite constellations for seamless, highly secure Internet access replacing fiber optic networks. For effective connectivity and fast and accurate operations anytime, anywhere, this technology might well be the most important thread upon which we completely rely.
Trend # 4: Information and data security
Where does pervasive use of cutting edge technologies and high speed networks leave us with respect to Privacy of information and Data security? The raging COVID fever the urgent need for Contact tracing, testing and a race to identify infected persons, collection and dissemination of very intimate information is now accessible to many groups of people – health workers, hospitals, Governments, the police probably? Conversations recorded over a conference call, Terra bytes of data shared over the Internet, images, videos, everything is vulnerable to hacking. With a desperation everyone wants the little social connect that online platforms offer. Does anyone check for security of the connections? Even if the sites you visit are called out as “Not secure” by Google chrome, do we stop surfing the Internet? Do you avoid the ‘Incognito’ mode in Google Chrome because of a little inconvenience?
Deloitte calls it “Unprecedented levels of public surveillance”. [13]. They have listed a dozen types of electronic monitoring apps or systems that are used to collect data to identify infections or measure antibodies or trace the location of a person .
But these are extraordinary times and calls for measures that should strike a balance between protecting individual privacy and data demands for protection of lives. Or perhaps the skew to the monitoring side should be restricted till a certain point. But in the end it is necessary for a protection agency such as GDPR to put a process in place for these exigent circumstances.
Trend # 5: Learning from a Distance
Because of the work from home mandate, increase in web traffic has been tremendous. Microsoft expects a 220% increase in skype-to-skype talk time, month over month. A whopping 40 million people use Skype every day! [16]. There is a rush to learn how to teach virtual classes, etiquette in Zoom meetings and remote learning. elearning is here to stay mainly because employees will continue working from home (WFH) even after the Pandemic passes.
The elearning market CAGR is predicted to increase at a CAGR of 8% from 2020 to 2026, a value projection of USD 375 million at the end of this period. And virtual classrooms are set to grow at a CAGR of 11 % [17].
Primary demands that will be created in the following areas:
(a) Content providers
(b) Virtual classrooms
(c) Wide choice in learning & certification programs
Elearning companies are offering online lessons free of cost or at greatly slashed prices, much to the benefit of customers. The demand for online content is expected to be the greatest challenge with this trend. But also that of shrunken margins.
Elearning market was already on a steep rise before the current crisis, but the Coronavirus Pandemic has boosted its prospects multiple fold.
The conclusion then is, COVID 19 does seem to have fast forwarded the applications of some technological advancements, a few years before they were set to happen. Will the world be able to cope with this sudden and drastic change in the way we live, breathe and work ? I’m optimistic, I say yes!
So, one year from today, will I have a wall to wall digital screen, a fully 5G enabled apartment, my robot helper Arya, keeping me fed, hydrated, reminding me of work-out schedule and maintaining the AR based holographic garden ? Will a drone deliver a dress I ordered for an online party that will project my friends in 3-D? Music on 4-D surround sound, the vibrations of the drum beat feeling like rhythmic pats on my skin? Let’s check back in a year.
REFERENCES
[1] Defining a new normal in life after COVID 19. May 5th, 2020
[2] 3 changes businesses will need to adapt to post-coronavirus by Kevin Sneader & Shubham Singhal , https://fortune.com/2020/05/01/business-reopen-economy-coronavirus-new-normal/
[3] What Will The Post-COVID ‘New Normal’ Look Like? Rodger Dean Duncan,
[4] Travel and Tourism after COVID
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-tourism-industry-worst-hit-countries-infographic/
[5] Industries Most and Least Impacted by COVID-19 from a Probability of Default Perspective;
Authors: Neeraj Kumar, Danny Haydon
[6] Working from home is here to stay, even when the economy reopens By Ari Levy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/work-from-home-is-here-to-stay-after-coronavirus.html
[7] Flamingos in Navi Mumbai, Youtube video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=60&v=-x-fG1xak8Y&feature=emb_logo
[8] What Will the Post-COVID “New Normal” Look Like?
https://www.directsellingnews.com/what-will-the-post-covid-new-normal-look-like/
[9] The Future of IT in a New Covid-19 Reality: 5 Technology Trends
https://www.sharpminds.com/news-entry/the-future-of-it-covid-19-reality-5-technology-trends/
[10] How Blockchain can help in COVID-19 crisis recovery
https://blog-idcuk.com/blockchain-help-in-the-covid-19-and-recovery/
[11] White paper on Block Chain applications
[12] 3 ways Augmented Reality can have a positive impact on society
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/augmented-reality-covid-19-positive-use/
[13] Privacy and Data Protection in the age of COVID-19
[14 ] Q1 Shopping Index: As Retailers Open Doors, Is Contactless Commerce Here to Stay?
https://www.salesforce.com/blog/2020/05/retail-contactless-commerce-here-to-stay.html
[15] 4 ways COVID-19 could change how we educate future generations
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/4-ways-covid-19-education-future-generations/
[16] Introducing the new Microsoft 365 Personal and Family subscriptions
[17] E-Learning Market Size By Technology (Online E-Learning, Learning Management System (LMS), Mobile E-Learning, Rapid E-Learning, Virtual Classroom), By Provider (Service, Content), By Application (Academic [K-12, Higher Education, Vocational Training], Corporate [SMBs, Large Enterprises], Government), Industry Analysis Report, Regional Outlook, Growth Potential, Competitive Market Share & Forecast, 2020 – 2026
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/elearning-market-size
